Voting for all 90 assembly seats in Haryana is scheduled to be held in a single phase on October 1. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leaving no stone unturned to take on the resurgent Congress in the state. The Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) is trying to retain its position as the third player in the election. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is also trying to emerge as a player in this election. However, there is a possibility of sharp polarization between the two major national parties. The Bharatiya Janata Party will have to deal with a double anti-incumbency wave in Haryana as it has been in power both in the state and at the Centre for the last 10 years.
Unmindful of these adverse winds, the BJP replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as chief minister in March, ahead of the general elections. Chief Minister Saini is trying to pacify various interest groups by reversing many decisions of his predecessor government and announcing new schemes. The expenditure limit for gram panchayats of sarpanches, who are strongly opposing the curtailment of their powers, has been increased from Rs 5 lakh to Rs 21 lakh. CM Saini has organised special camps, or ‘Samadhan Shivirs’, to redress people’s grievances. Apart from this, job security has been ensured for 1.20 lakh contract employees till the age of retirement.
Khattar had reduced the creamy layer rate annual income for OBCs to Rs 6 lakh, which was later revised to Rs 8 lakh. A 10 per cent reservation for Agniveers in various Haryana government jobs and an expanded minimum support price system for crops have been promised. The fundamental social cleavage between Jats and non-Jats in Haryana worked in favour of the BJP in the last two assembly elections. But the BJP’s multi-caste coalition had started weakening by the 2019 assembly elections. In the last five years, the farmers’ movement and the Agneepath scheme have further weakened it.
Besides, the party is mired in a lot of rivalries within its own camp. The party’s majority in the assembly itself is in question. The Congress is hoping to capitalise on all this and turn its fortunes around. Former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who is leading the Congress’ election campaign, seems to have united the party behind him. His focus is on unemployment and the crisis in the agricultural sector. The Congress still has to ensure that its factional leaders stay united till the end. Communal polarisation, though at its lowest in the last 10 years, could still hamper the party’s plans. Despite a drop in popularity, the BJP managed to avoid a complete rout in the Lok Sabha elections. The 10 Lok Sabha seats were equally divided between the Congress and the BJP, while the Congress increased its vote share across the state. The result of Haryana will have ramifications for the Congress and the BJP at the national level.
