Weather Update | Forecast of above average monsoon rain remains intact, temperature will be above normal in June

The IMD has maintained its forecast of above average monsoon rainfall, with temperatures likely to remain above normal in June. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday maintained its April forecast and said India is likely to receive above average monsoon rainfall this year. “Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%,” the IMD said.

“Above normal rainfall is likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2024,” it said.

The IMD also said that while the monsoon will remain above normal over central and southern peninsular India, it is expected to receive below normal rainfall over northeast India and below normal rainfall over northwest India. The weather agency also said that conditions are favourable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala in the next 5 days.

In 2023, rainfall over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June–September) was 94 per cent of the long period average. More than 70 per cent of the total rainfall in India is received during this southwest monsoon period. The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by the onset of the monsoon in Kerala and is an important indicator signifying the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season.

The IMD has predicted a higher number of heatwave days over northwest India and adjoining parts of the central region in June. The IMD has said, “During June 2023, most parts of northwest India and neighbouring areas of north central India are likely to experience warmer than normal days.”

It also warned that during heatwaves, vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and people with underlying health problems, face an increased risk of health-related illnesses. “Authorities can act proactively by opening cooling centres, issuing advisories and reducing urban heat islands,” he said.

A large part of North India is reeling under severe heat and temperatures have soared above 45 degrees Celsius in many places across the country since last week. According to the India Meteorological Department, on Sunday, the maximum temperature was recorded at 48.3 degrees Celsius in Mungeshpur, Delhi and 47.4 degrees in Faridkot, Punjab.

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