Prabhasakshi Exit Poll: Accurate exit poll based on ground reports done during the two and a quarter month long nationwide Chunav Yatra

With the completion of the seventh phase of elections, a major task related to the election process of the largest democratic country on this earth was accomplished. If seen, the Election Commission of India deserves appreciation for this election which was conducted more or less peacefully. All the officers, employees, security forces involved in the election process and the people who provided some kind of service in making this great festival of democracy successful also deserve congratulations. All the political parties also deserve congratulations who participated enthusiastically in the elections and strengthened our democracy. Our voters, that is, the destiny makers of India, played the most important role in this election because without their voting this yagya would not have been successful. However, the voting percentage was a matter of concern. The government and the Election Commission will have to see how it can be improved in the future. One of the main reasons for low voting was the hot weather. Usually, elections in the country used to be held in September-October but due to Atal ji conducting the Lok Sabha elections six months earlier in 2004, now it is held in the month of April-May. In such a situation, when India is moving towards ‘one country, one election’, some solution should be found that the elections should be held a little earlier or later instead of in this scorching heat.

Another special thing about this election was that while the last election was fought by reaching out to the public through WhatsApp messages, this time YouTube channels also played a very big role. Apart from this, words like mutton, fish, mangalsutra, Pakistan, Muslim and mujra also remained at the center of election campaign in this election. In this election too, the leaders did not hesitate in making personal attacks on each other. In this election too, going to the Election Commission office to attack each other and complain against each other was the routine of political parties. There were not many attacks on EVMs during the elections, but it remains to be seen whether EVMs are able to avoid being targeted by the leaders even after the election results or not?

prime minister’s campaign

As far as the star campaigners of this election are concerned, let us tell you that Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned most effectively. He concluded his election campaign with a rally in Hoshiarpur, Punjab on Thursday. With this, he held a total of 206 public meetings and road shows since the Election Commission announced the election schedule on March 16. The Prime Minister had earlier participated in about 145 public events during the 2019 elections. This time he campaigned more than this and addressed public meetings. This time the election campaign time was 76 days, whereas five years ago there were 68 days in the elections. Let us tell you that when the Election Commission announced the elections, Modi was on a political tour of South India. During this, he covered all the five states of South India in three days between March 15 and March 17. In this election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to strengthen its position in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. In these three states, the BJP could not win a single seat in the 2019 elections. However, how much impact this aggressive election campaign of Prime Minister Modi had on the public, it will be known only on June 4 when the election results will be declared. If we look at it, no leader can even come close to Modi in terms of the number of meetings he held and the distance he covered at the age of 73. He was the biggest attraction for his party to attract voters. Critics criticized him for the speeches he gave during this period, but the enthusiasm of BJP’s enthusiastic supporters also increased. The Prime Minister also gave a total of 80 media interviews during this period. On an average, he gave more than one interview every day since the voting started. Modi stayed in Kanyakumari for meditation from Thursday evening to June 1. During this time he is meditating at a place associated with Swami Vivekananda.

opposition campaign

On the other hand, if we talk about the opposition, let us tell you that former Congress President Rahul Gandhi participated in a total of 107 public meetings and other election programs during the campaign in this Lok Sabha election. As the main leader of the party, Rahul Gandhi held public meetings in favor of the party in various states and participated in many major programs like road shows, dialogue programs and ‘Nyaya Sammelan’ and ‘Nyaya Manch’. Rahul Gandhi campaigned in favor of Congress in Punjab on the last day of election campaign before the seventh phase of voting in the Lok Sabha elections. He addressed some public meetings along with Samajwadi Party (SP) President Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh and Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar and sought votes for the candidates of ‘India’ alliance. Rahul Gandhi has contested the election from Wayanad in Kerala and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies of Uttar Pradesh this time. Apart from this, Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra held 108 public meetings and road shows in 55 days. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra also gave more than 100 media bytes, one TV interview and five print interviews. He campaigned in a total of six states and one union territory.

Other prominent leaders’ campaigns

Apart from this, other leaders whose meetings attracted the maximum crowd included Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, BJP President Jagat Prakash Nadda, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, former Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejaswi Yadav, Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav, Assam Chief Minister Himmat Biswa Sharma, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, BSP chief Mayawati, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. It remains to be seen which of these leaders emerges as the most influential on June 4.

exit poll result

As far as the election results are concerned, they will be known only on June 4, but the possible election results that we have assessed on the basis of our interaction with the public during our election journey of two and a quarter months, i.e. the exit poll of CricketInFocus is predicting the formation of Modi government for the third consecutive time in the country. Let us tell you that even during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, after our nationwide coverage, the assessment that the number of seats of BJP would cross 300 was proved correct. For 2024 also, our own assessment is that BJP can reach between 315 to 335 seats on its own strength and 370 seats with NDA. Let us tell you that in the states where BJP had won 100 percent seats in the 2014 and 2019 elections, except Gujarat, it is likely to lose one or two seats in the rest of the states, but West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Punjab are going to increase the seats of BJP this time, due to which its figure can increase from 303 last time to 335 this time. Uttar Pradesh is playing the most important role in the formation of Modi government for the third time because here BJP and NDA together are seen to get more than 65 seats. Similarly, Congress party is crossing the figure of 50 seats this time and the India Alliance can be around 125 seats in total. Other seats are likely to go to regional parties and independents.

-Neeraj Kumar Dubey

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